In Bonn lohnt sich Betongold

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Ein Bericht von:

von Jens Hagen,  Quelle:Handelsblatt Online
In den großen Städten werden Immobilien knapp und teuer. An schlechten Standorten gibt es noch günstige Objekte – hier drohen aber Mietausfälle und Wertverlust.

Eine Studie zeigt, wo Rendite und Risiko im Einklang sind.
DüsseldorfWäre ein Brexit ein Risiko für den deutschen Immobilienmarkt? Marktprofis winken ab. „Ein Austritt dürfte das für den deutschen Immobilienmarkt keine allzu großen negativen Konsequenzen haben“, erklärt Rechtsanwalt Esfandiar Khorrami von der Berliner Kanzlei BK Law. Khorrami spezialisiert sich unter anderem auf Immobilienrecht.
Britische Investoren, die schon in der Vergangenheit in Deutschland zuschlugen, werden das auch weiterhin und in einen vergleichbaren Umfang tun. „Das Fremdwährungsthema bleibt schließlich unverändert und war auch bislang kein Hindernis für Investoren von jenseits des
Ärmelkanals,“ sagt Khorrami. Die Nachfrage übersteigt vielerorts bei weitem das Angebot – und das dürfte auch in Zukunft so bleiben. Nach einer Studie des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) müssten in Deutschland bis 2020 jährlich rund 380.000 Wohnungen errichtet werden, um Angebot und Nachfrage in Einklang zu bringen. Tatsächlich seien im vergangenen Jahr aber nur 247.000 Wohnungen gebaut worden.
Die Chancen, dass der deutsche Markt für Wohnimmobilien weiter brummt, sind gut. Das zeigt eine Analyse des auf die Immobilienbranche spezialisierten Dienstleisters Dr. Lübke & Kelber. Im vergangenen Jahr betrug das Transaktionsvolumen 23,5 Milliarden Euro, ein Rekordwert. 30 Prozent des Geldes floss in die Top-7-Metropolen Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Köln, Frankfurt, München und Stuttgart.
Weil keine Großfusionen anstehen und das Angebot immer knapper wird, dürfte das Transaktions-Niveau nach Prognose der Marktexperten in diesem Jahr zwischen 12 und 14 Milliarden Euro betragen, etwa so viel wie noch im Jahr 2014. „Da lukrative Investitionsmöglichkeiten in den großen Metropolen zunehmend fehlen, sind B-Städte sowohl für private wie institutionelle Käufer einen Blick wert“, sagt Ulrich Jacke, Geschäftsführer bei Dr. Lübke & Kelber. Eine aufwendige Studie seines Hauses zeigt, wo Chancen und Risiken für Käufer besonders attraktiv sind.
Das „Risiko-Rendite-Ranking“, analysiert für 110 Städte in Deutschland, welche Objekt- und Eigenkapitalrenditen Käufer erzielen können – und welche Renditen Käufer erzielen müssen, damit sich ihr Risiko auch auszahlt.
Zunächst entwickelten die Immobilienexperten ein Risikorating für die unterschiedlichen Standorte.
Basis sind Daten zu Bevölkerung, Sozioökonomie, Wohnungsmarkt und der Nachfrage sowie den Miet- und Kaufpreisen. 16 der 110 Städte haben ein Rating von A++. Das niedrigste Risiko haben nach der Auswertung die Metropolen München und Frankfurt, gefolgt von Ingolstadt und Stuttgart. Das Problem: Wer sein Geld besonders sicher anlegt, muss mit Einbußen bei der Rendite rechnen. Und diese alte Investoren-Regel gilt auch für den deutschen Wohnimmobilienmarkt.

Attraktive Chancen Im Bestand und Neubau
Der Blick auf die untere Seite des Risiko-Ratings zeigt 31 Städte, die mit mit einem Rating von A- bewerten wurden. Hier finden sich Deßlau-Rossau, Gera und Gelsenkirchen, ebenso wie Hagen, Herne oder Remscheid. Hier können Käufer wesentlich höhere Renditen beim Kauf erzielen, gehen aber in solchen strukturschwachen Gebieten ein beträchtliches Risiko ein.
Wie immens die Unterschiede zwischen Top- und Flop-Rating sind, zeigt der Blick auf die Ertragskraft der Standorte. Eine Kennziffer dafür ist die sogenannte Nettoanfangsrendite, welche die Mieteinnahmen im ersten Jahr in Prozent des Objektpreises inklusive Nebenkosten abbildet.
In München, der Stadt mit dem besten Risiko-Rating beträgt die Rendite im Schnitt von guten und mittleren Lagen 3,3 Prozent. In Gera, Frankfurt Oder oder Dessau Roßlau liegt die Nettoanfangsrendite bei bis zu zehn Prozent.
Wo gibt es die besten Chancen für Käufer, die nicht auf die Extreme setzen, sondern das beste Verhältnis von Risiko und Rendite erzielen möchten? Um diese Frage zu beantworten, analysierten die Marktexperten von Dr. Lübke & Kelber reale Mindestrenditen, die Käufer inklusive Risikoabschlag bei den Ratings von A++ bis A- und unter Berücksichtigung einer sicheren Alternativanlage in zehnjährigen Bundesanleihen erzielen können, sowie die tatsächlichen Eigenkapitalrenditen inklusive Kosten für Finanzierung und Nebenkosten. Die Analyse zeigt, welche Standorte ein besonders positives Verhältnis von Risiko und Rendite bieten.
Im Bestand liegen Bonn, Wolfsburg und Osnabrück vorne. Hier erzielen Käufer im Schnitt eine Mehrrendite von 2,75 Prozentpunkten gegenüber der von Dr. Lübke & Kelber empfohlenen Mindestrendite – bei einem ausgewogenen Risiko. Im Neubau-Segment führen die Städte Wolfsburg, Bremen und Mannheim das Ranking an.
Und noch ein Ergebnis dürfte Immobilienkäufer interessieren. „Eine geltende Mietpreisbremse an einem Standort schlägt natürlich direkt auf die dortigen Objektrenditen durch“, sagt Jacke. In den betroffenen Standorten darf die Miete bei einer Neuvermietung die ortsübliche Vergleichsmiete nicht um mehr als zehn Prozent übertreffen.

„Insbesondere in den Top-7-Städten, die mit am stärksten im Fokus politischer Regulierung stehen, beeinflusst dies maßgeblich das Investitionsergebnis und das ausgerechnet in Städten, bei denen der Nachfrageüberhang besonders ausgeprägt ist und dringend neuer Wohnraum benötigt wird.“

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